Safire tells horror stories; here's why he's wrong

Mr. Safire, who I wish would stick to elucidating word origins in his eminently skippable Times Magazine column, gives voice to the secret nightmare of non-Dean dems everywhere in his Op-Ed today: If Dean doesn't get the nomination, he'll go Nader on us and, as Safire puts it, "That split of opposition would be a bonanza for Bush. In a two-man race, the odds are that he would beat Dean comfortably, but in a three-party race, Bush would surely waltz in with the greatest of ease."

Safire doesn't want this to happen because "landslides lead to tyrannous majorities and big trouble. "

Now, I agree that a three-party race would be a disaster, and that it's only in Bizarro-world that Bush wouldn't win. But I dispute Safire's nightmare for several reasons.

First of all, if Bush would beat Dean only 'comfortably' in a two-man race, why would a three-man race lead to a 'landslide'? People who would vote for Dean no matter what would still vote for Dean, people who would vote Dem no matter what would still vote for the Dem candidate, and disaffected Republicans and Independents who, in a Bush-Dean race, would hold their noses and vote for Bush, would have the opportunity to hold their noses and vote for the centrist Dem instead. Bush might win, but very likely with less of the popular vote than he would have garnered in a two-man race.

Second, Bush's installation as President in 2001 was not the result of a clear victory at all, much less a landslide, and his administration has still behaved as a 'tyrannous majority'. Safire imagines big trouble in the future ; I invite him to wake up and smell the big trouble that is the present. Things will undoubtedly be worse if Bush manages (I won't say 'wins') a second term, but I'm not sure it matters whether he gets by comfortably, in a landslide, or with a little help from his friends. 1984, here we come!

Third, I am so sick of hearing about the fractured Democratic party and how it's split between the DLC old Washington Dems and the Internet revolutionary Dean-dems. It's insulting to call those of us who support candidates other than Dean 'Washington Dems'. Why don't you just call us 'squares' and get it over with?

Wait, you say, it's not like Safire made that split up, he's just reporting it. Clark and Dean are calling each other liars, and their supporters are viciously attacking one another, as evidenced by your own pro-Clark anti-Dean blog! Such a family feud can't possibly be resolved in time to present a unified front for the general election. It's getting far too brutal. Sure, those square DLC dems will rally round no matter who wins the nomination, but those Dean people won't.

I voiced the very same worry in a previous blog post, quoting the Doctor himself as evidence. Let us all remember, however, that the scenario presented is only one possibility. There are other possible futures, and as Dean likes to tell his audiences, we've got the power here. Not Mr. Safire, not Mr. Gore, not the DLC, the DNC, or the GOP. I'm all for imagining the worst, but let's do a little risk management and plan for it too.

So here's the scenario: Clark wins the Dem nomination. Dean and his supporters decide to have themselves a little third-party party. Heaven only knows what little Ralphie Nader is up to. Karl Rove is gloating, John Ashcroft is preparing to re-anoint himself in Crisco while going after those who have found more creative uses for shortening, and our soldiers are still dying. But wait! What's this? Those DLC squares have some internet geeks too? They've got grassroots? They've got cash? And what are they doing? They're fanning out across the country, with their blogs and their flyers. Reagan Dems like my dad do intensive outreach to those disaffected Republicans and Independents in the so-called Red states. Clark socialists like me party with the Deaniacs and thin their ranks. Little-d democrats come out of the woodwork in unlikely places, found at soldiers' funerals, in unemployment lines, even at church socials. Suddenly Karl Rove is popping tranquilizers and the race looks not-at-all-assured.

Bizarro-world? Maybe. But maybe what we're living in right now is the bizarro-world.

And anyway, it's Christmas Eve. And even though it's not a holiday I celebrate, even though I'm the perpetual pessimist, today I feel hopeful.

Today, yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.