Canvassing in Florida: Implications for the General Election

In the 2000 general election the presidency was decided by 500 or so votes in Florida. It would therefore be instructive to look at the current situation in Florida and the strength and weaknesses of the various candidates. The polls tell little about the most important issue for the Democrats in this election: who is the strongest candidate to take on Bush? Many of the poll respondents don't know much about most of the Democratic candidates, while Bush is well known. Moreover, the polls have fluctuated wildly in the last few months, with some polls showing Bush defeated by an unnamed candidate and others showing a landslide for the incumbent. If the Democrats can win Florida, this will go a long way toward winning the White House.

For the last few weeks I have been canvassing extensively for Clark in Titusville, Florida, a town of 35,000 on the east coast, near Kennedy Space Center. This is an extremely Republican part of the state. My canvassing found few registered Democrats, but several thinking Republicans and Independents. Many of the Republicans expressed great admiration for the president and had no problem with his policies. However a significant percentage -- about twenty percent in this unscientific poll -- had grave reservations about Bush, centered around his policy in Iraq and the large deficit. Still others were concerned about the future makeup of the Supreme Court if Bush were re-elected. The problem these Republicans and Independents faced was finding someone on the Democratic side with whom they were compatible and could vote for. They were concerned about national security, the deficit and the fracturing of the American electorate under the current president. They unequivocally rejected Howard Dean as an alternative, and for the most part were not comfortable with any of the other candidates except for Wes Clark. They were drawn to him because of his military background and foreign policy experience -- powerful issues for many Republicans. The Florida Coordinator for Clark tells me that 20 to 30 percent of Clark volunteers are Republicans, which tallies with my own experience. If we write these voters off, as Dean's campaign would like to, we effectively are writing off Florida and other swing states. This is a recipe for disaster. There are few new voters in my state that Dean can mobilize to offset those that he will lose.

Winning the general election by ceding the entire South to the Republicans and focusing on other regions, as some have suggested, is an iffy strategy at best. Certainly Florida is winnable with the right candidate. But this candidate must appeal to Independents and at least some Republicans, and based on my experience the only candidate who can do this is Wes Clark.

[posted by Amy but written by her technology-challenged Dad, Mickey]