Jared Diamond on Decline and Fall

The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Contributor: The Ends of the World as We Know Them: "History warns us that when once-powerful societies collapse, they tend to do so quickly and unexpectedly. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise: peak power usually means peak population, peak needs, and hence peak vulnerability. What can be learned from history that could help us avoid joining the ranks of those who declined swiftly? We must expect the answers to be complex, because historical reality is complex: while some societies did indeed collapse spectacularly, others have managed to thrive for thousands of years without major reversal."

We'll make it, says Diamond, if we are able to learn from history. That, it seems, is a very big if.