Polls

A run for the presidency this year is like a roller coaster ride. It starts out with a long, slow ascent to the top of the first hill, and then all hell breaks loose. It’s going to be a wild ride. But Iowa proved one thing: the electorate this year is very volatile, nobody’s support is rock solid, and the polls can change dramatically, sometimes overnight. The key is to stay focused, and calm. (Rich over at the Wesley Clark weblog has the best take on polls that I’ve seen.) Don't let the polls get you down. If Kerry and Edwards had, this would now be a two-man race, and Dean would be the odds-on favorite.

The electorate is shopping wisely this year, and number one on their list of requirements is electability (see previous post). That's what the exit polls from Iowa indicated and that's what my own canvassing in Florida has shown. The way I read the Iowa results and Dean's dismal showing as well as Gephardt's is that ultimately electability trumped everything else including organization. A candidate's stance on the war or taxes, or anything else for that matter, didn’t really affect the outcome. Iowans believed that Kerry and Edwards were the most electable of the candidates they had to choose from and they voted accordingly. But because of logistical considerations, the most electable candidate wasn't in the race. So the people haven’t passed judgment on Wes Clark yet. They will very soon and it will be interesting to see. But try to keep cool during the next several days; the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

Mickey